Research
My research is organized around three connected programs. Published articles link to their journal records and local PDFs where available. Working papers in revision or at an early stage are described without downloadable files.
Political Economy of Innovation
The Paradox of Government-Funded Innovation in Weakly Institutionalized Environments
Why can government support for research produce more patents but less valuable innovation? I develop a formal model and study a Russian R&D policy using patent data and a quasi-experimental design. The project shows how weak oversight can redirect public support toward measurable output at the expense of technological quality. PDF · DOI
R&D Investment and Political Connections: Complements or Substitutes? Evidence from Russia
How do political connections affect firms’ responses to public innovation support? The paper develops a model of targeted support and evaluates a Russian R&D grant program with firm-level data. It clarifies when public funding can stimulate innovation while preserving advantages for politically connected firms. PDF · DOI
The Puzzling Politics of R&D: Signaling Competence through Risky Projects
Why would politicians invest in risky projects whose benefits arrive after the next election? A formal signaling model, survey experiments in the United States and Russia, and cross-national evidence show that support for R&D can signal political competence before projects succeed. The paper identifies an electoral rationale for long-term innovation policy. PDF · DOI
Patent Protection and Innovative Entrepreneurship
With Maxim Ananyev. How does patent protection shape the financing and entry of software startups? We use the 2014 Alice Supreme Court decision as a change in software-patent protection and analyze outcomes in a large database of U.S. startups. The project connects intellectual-property rules to entrepreneurial finance and the composition of innovative entry. SSRN
Public Support for Long-term Military Investments during Wartime: Evidence from Ukraine
With Vera Mironova and Sam Whitt. How does prolonged war change public support for long-term military innovation relative to civilian investment? We use a two-wave survey in Ukraine and compare preferences as the war progresses. The project speaks to the political foundations of postwar security, reconstruction, and economic diversification.
War Exposure and Public Demand for State-led Innovation: Evidence from Ukraine
With Vera Mironova. Does direct exposure to war change how citizens allocate scarce reconstruction resources? We combine wartime surveys, fixed-sum budget tasks, and comparisons among respondents from the same prewar communities. The project examines when crisis makes state-led R&D politically feasible and which public priorities it displaces.
Searching for Data Privacy: Effects of the General Data Protection Regulation on Firm Ad Revenue and Data Privacy Concerns
With Kristine Thomas. Does privacy regulation change both firm outcomes and public concern about data use? We study the GDPR using advertising outcomes and Google search behavior. The project connects regulatory protection, consumer attention, and the longer-run adaptation of digital markets.
Information, Institutions, and Political Behavior
Information Manipulation and Repression: Theory and Evidence from the COVID-19 Response in Russia
With Konstantin Sonin. How do propaganda and repression interact during a crisis? A formal model and regional evidence from Russia link manipulated COVID-19 reporting to political prosecutions and public compliance. The findings show how institutional quality and civil society constrain complementary tools of authoritarian control. PDF · DOI
When Politically Congruent Opinions Pass for Facts: Self-Worth and Motivated Classification in Media Environments
With Alexei Zakharov, Sydney Brown, and Minh Dao. Why do people sometimes grant factual authority to claims that support their political side? A preregistered survey experiment tests whether strengthening self-worth changes how respondents classify politically congruent facts and opinions. The project moves the study of motivated reasoning to an earlier decision: which claims people permit to count as evidence.
Stability of Revolutionary Governments in the Face of Mass Protest
With Dmitry Dagaev and Anton Sobolev. Why do some governments born from revolution survive while others face renewed mass protest? We combine historical evidence with a dynamic model of protest coordination, ideology, communication, and coercive capacity. The analysis explains why revolutionary governments have become increasingly vulnerable to subsequent mobilization. PDF · DOI
Economic Transition and the Rise of Alternative Institutions: Political Connections in Putin’s Russia
With Konstantin Sonin. Why can demand for property protection generate personal connections rather than rule-based institutions? A model of loyalty and competence is paired with network evidence on Russia’s business elite. The project shows how political connections can become durable substitutes for impersonal institutions. PDF · DOI
Well-being, Public Policy, and Institutions
The Causal Effect of Pet Ownership on Health and Well-being
With Maxim Ananyev, Ferdi Botha, and Kyle Peyton. Does acquiring a pet improve health and well-being? We use longitudinal Australian data, a change in rental policy, and a stability-controlled quasi-experimental estimator. The analysis tests a widespread policy and public-health belief against evidence that is less vulnerable to selection than conventional cross-sectional comparisons. PDF · DOI
Public Perspectives on War Trauma Research: Evidence from Ukraine
With Vera Mironova and Sam Whitt. How does the public judge research on sensitive wartime trauma? A survey experiment in Ukraine varies researcher identity, subject matter, and perceived rapport. The project identifies practical conditions under which survey research can earn trust while asking consequential questions about harm.